A seismology-like earthquake prediction
Earthquake prediction:A difference in the earthquake prediction and
the earthquake danger prediction.It is asked that the earthquake prediction
which a seismologist says to predict seismic 3 element (When, in where,
the earthquake of which scale) precisely by using a scientific sign
like seismology.Among these, when even one is missing, it doesn't come
to predict an earthquake. Furthermore, the problem of the earthquake
prediction is left to the government except for this standard as a "political
problem".
Prediction and Forecast
Even if it is purely scientific, this earthquake forecast makes a big
wall between "Prediction and Forecast". In other words it
is the atmosphere which even a word to say as the prediction any more
before the motto like the power such that "An inhabitant causes
a panic.Because an error on 1 day is the damage of about 710000000000
yen. which gets over Hanshin in 10 days for 7000000000000 yen..."
can't be used for. In the end the long prediction activities of the
country until now were generalized, and "A prediction is impossible
just before the earthquake."and a conclusion were done. Everyone
is about to know the thing well by the newspaper and the TV report.
PISCO law(How to predict earthquake danger)
The environment information of the anormaly of the atmosphere ion concentration
and acroscopic anomaly (The anormaly that an area inhabitant doesn't
experience daily life in the nature , animal , electric machine and
so on is observed.) is made use of actively here. Furthermore, a minute
earthquake-small earthquake during the danger forecast due to a change
in an ion, seismology like blank data , geology like fault and structure
use every sign information synthetically.In other words, a danger forecast
just before the earthquake is approached from the viewpoint of discovery
with repeating all by using the geography information system on the
same map and visual observation doing the various relations to put together.The
thing which Japan of the 21st century which a textbook was not in was
presumed can be said.
The logic of prediction information opening to the public
The anormaly that an inhabitant didn't usually experience it specially
was observed, and it felt danger macroscopic anomaly by the inhabitant
observation in the body and reported.It is collected "Information
is an inhabitant's.", and it is " opening to the public is
a premise".A "danger prediction just before the earthquake"
is said in consideration of the sex just before this macroscopic anormaly.
This is shortened, and a "earthquake danger prediction" is
said.Such "how to predict an earthquake" is being called "PISCO
law".
The forecast of the huge earthquake, only?
The damage-less earthquake of the seismic intensity 4 and under happens
sevsral times every month.The news spread with the TV earthquake information
darkens an inhabitant's heart.That earthquake information can be forecast
like a weather forecast with "This afternoon is safe, and tomorrow's
morning is semi-safety (little earthquake be, too, 60% probability.)"
is as important as the forecast of the huge earthquake.The panic consciousness
which has only the earthquake of 1 time in 100 permeates to national
every corner.
Let's forecast a damage-less earthquake, too
The ion concentration of the atmosphere ion measurement vessel of Okayama
college of science has begun to show Hyogo Prefecture southern earthquake
(1998.3/4,06h02m, M4.2, Nose-cho : seismic intensity 3, 2-1) which shook
the inhabitant of Hanshin and which was caused an anormaly in early
March, 1998 since 3/2, about 14 o'clock.It was an earthquake 41 hours
ago.It forecast "It has the possibility(60% of the probability)
that a small earthquake(Less than seismic intensity 3)about M4 happens
in a radius 200km territory from Okayama within 48 hours from 3/3, 01
o'clock." in the laboratory in 3/2, 19 o'clock.An inhabitant gets
accustomed to the method which touches each other if this damage-less
earthquake can be predicted, forecast every day.Andit will be able to
cope with composure in several-years-several hundred years for the forecast
of the huge earthquake of 1 time as well. It is because its prediction
probability is high as much as the big earthquake and the reliability
of the information can be confirmed by the little thing. Even if it
is only in the organization and how many results are increased, a problem
like an earthquake danger prediction doesn't move forward. Many problems
which we have at present may have been reduced if Hyogo Prefecture southeastern
department earthquake can be predicted by opening to the public. It
leaves "It is very verified together with 10000000 inhabitants."
from such an experience.
